Showing posts with label MERS. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MERS. Show all posts

Saturday, June 13, 2015

MERS as (another) messenger of prevention

It's hard for me to know how to interpret the MERS situation in South Korea. At a high level, a recently recognized viral respiratory pathogen has traveled halfway around the world and is causing morbidity and mortality in a small section of an immunologically naive population. It appears to be associated with hospitals. What do we take away from this? Lessons will be learned when the event subsides and people study what happened, but to me, MERS reminds us that outbreaks of pathogens for which there are no vaccines or drug therapies underscore the importance of prevention.

When possible, preventing pathogens from physically reaching or entering a host by respiratory, percutaneous, alimentary, blood et al pathways is preferable to relying on pharmaceutics. Drugs tend to be complex and costly to develop, can take a long time to enter the marketplace, and -- especially in the case of antibiotics and antivirals -- they can become obsolete over time. Moreover, drugs are often toxic to the patient. Prevention is applicable in situations when appropriate drugs don't exist (e.g., for newly emerged pathogens), when it isn't possible to administer drugs in a timely manner, or when patients cannot tolerate them. 

Consider two anecdotes related to the spread of MERS virus in South Korean hospitals. As described by Choe Sang-Hun, it appears that the index patient in the South Korean event had "coughed and wheezed his way through four hospitals before officials figured out, nine days later, that he had something far more serious and contagious." Furthermore, ED wait times in Korea can be extraordinarily long by US standards. Another patient, who waited two-and-a-half days in the emergency department before a hospital bed became available, infected 55 additional individuals during their wait. Apparently, 2.5 days isn't an unusually long waiting time in some Seoul hospitals. 

Applying effective prevention measures to patients suspected of infection is the only way of stopping the chain of transmission in such environments. Unfortunately, it is unclear how to achieve good infection control for MERS and a range of other pathogens. Eli Perencevich described the issue clearly, as usual, in the Controversies in Hospital Infection Prevention blog recently: 
. . . we don't actually know how to achieve good infection control for MERS and the other diseases he [Tom Frieden] mentioned [measles, DR-TB, SARS, Ebola]. If only we invested in studies to understand how to best implement PPE in these [hospital] settings. One could imagine improved PPE technology, refined PPE donning and doffing algorithms and enhanced environmental cleaning as potential targets for future studies examining optimal protection from MERS. Not coincidentally, many of these are the same targets that Mike, Dan and I mentioned in our Ebola+PPE editorial several months ago. If we invest in infection prevention technology and implementation research, our health care system will be safer regardless of the pathogen du jour.
And that's the point that MERS makes me think about. Yes we need antimicrobials and vaccines that work against specific pathogens, of course we do, but developing such drugs is a major effort. Biochemical pathways must be understood, pathogen life histories and survival strategies must be elucidated, and the host response must be characterized among many, many other things. Doesn't it make sense that research on pathogen-agnostic approaches to prevention, which don't require such specific and complex information, might be simpler and broadly applicable? 

Investing in research on infection prevention approaches, and how to implement them sustainably in realistic clinical environments, would pay benefits far beyond helping to thwart the spread of exotic and newly emerged pathogens. We may learn how to better control and prevent the usual suspects of hospital associated infection, which, afterall, are responsible for a tremendous burden of disease day in and day out.

(image source: Wikipedia)

Saturday, May 3, 2014

First US MERS case announced

Photo: MERS-CoV particles as seen by negative stain electron microscopy. Virions contain characteristic club-like projections emanating from the viral membrane.Yesterday the first case of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) observed in the US was announced. The case is a man who flew to Chicago, Illinois from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia by way of London, England. After landing in Chicago, he took a bus to Indiana. He arrived in the US on April 24 and began experiencing shortness of breath, coughing, and fever on April 27. He presented to a community hospital in Munster, Indiana, on April 28; because of his symptoms and travel history, the man was tested for the MERS coronavirus.

Understandably, the story is being covered widely in the press. One can learn more about MERS from several sources. The ECDC MERS-CoV epidemiological update as of April 30 is an excellent summary of MERS globally, and additional resources can be found at the CDC MERS Website. UPMC has also published a nice summary of the global situation. 

It would be interesting to utilize mathematical modeling to estimate where, assuming the patient was infectious while on the bus and planes, new cases might be likely to develop, geographically speaking. Such analysis could be helpful for instituting intensified surveillance in the places most likely to have such cases; using models, it may be possible to forecast the most likely cities. A rich set of methods, spanning the 1960s to the present, has been developed to understand the spatio-temporal spread of influenza and those could probably be adapted for such purposes if data on domestic bus, rail, and air travel since the plane landed is available. And while it's true that significant uncertainties in latency and incubation periods, transmission rates, and other epidemiologic parameters exist, there are techniques that allow us to estimate the effects of such uncertainties on model results.

Gathering the data, especially the transportation data, may be difficult. A NYT article this morning noted
The typical incubation period for MERS is five days, and the patient is not known to have infected anyone else. Airline passenger lists will be used to contact everyone who sat near him.

But because bus companies often do not know who bought tickets or who sat where, “that bus ride may be a challenge,” said Tom Skinner, a C.D.C. spokesman.
Information on rail passengers may be similarly difficult.

The time to develop adaptable modeling capabilities and gather such data is before new diseases emerge and spread. Of course, it's not possible to anticipate specific details about a new disease prior to emergence, but we do have some data on MERS already, plus lots of insight into how respiratory diseases spread in general. 

Regardless of models, it will be interesting to watch the MERS situation develop globally in the coming months.

(image source: CDC)